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1. Overview

This report presents monitoring of the ongoing seasonal conditions for the Ethiopia FBF program during the 2023 MAM season. The object of this document is to summarise the season’s weather patterns, compare them against the forecast used to plan aniticpatory action, and present information on the humanitarian conditions.

This document will be updated as the season progresses. The last update was on 17 April, 2023.

The forecast SOPs used for planning anticipatory action for this project, as well as the current season’s forecast, can be found here:

https://fist.iri.columbia.edu/publications/docs/eth_somali_fbf_monitor_2023/


2. Introduction

Sources of Information

This report draws on satellite measurements of rainfall (CHIRPS) and vegetation condition (MODIS NDVI) as well as humanitarian reports on food security conditions.

Regions Assessed

This report summarises conditions over Somali region as well as the southern part of Oromia region; this catchment area covers the following administrative zones:


3. Satellite Rainfall and Vegetation

CHIRPS Rainfall


This map tool presents CHIRPS rainfall data for the current season. Hover over the “Layers” tab to view a rainfall anomaly map for any 10-day period of the season. Click on a zone to view its rainfall progress over the season in more detail. This tool will automatically update as data becomes available.

So far, rainfall has been at or above average over the project area. There has not been much spatial variability in the distribution of rainfall over the project area. However, it is too early to know how the season will conclude.

MODIS NDVI

This map tool presents MODIS NDVI vegetation data for the current season. Hover over the “Layers” tab to view an NDVI anomaly map for any 16-day period of the season. Click on a zone to view its NDVI progress over the season in more detail. This tool will automatically update as data becomes available.

So far, MODIS NDVI has been above average over the project area. However, the most clear signal of vegetation’s response to rainfall will not be available until the end of the season.


4. Expert Reports

FEWSNET

The full text of the most recent FEWS key message is available via the link below:

FEWS January 2023 Key Message

The FEWSnet report raises the following alerts about the project area:

“While the deyr/hageya season performed relatively better in areas of Bale Zone in Oromia and Korahe and Dollo zones in the Somali region, livestock concentration in these areas is putting pressure on the already few pastoral resources. Livestock deaths are still occurring, and with the likely below-average February to May 2023 gu/genna season, crop cultivation and availability of water and pasture for livestock are likely to continue to be extremely low.”


This chart presents the average Feb IPC score over each zone in the project area, with 1 being minimal food insecurity and 5 being famine. Note that the 2022 score is a projection based on data from Jan and some trend assumptions.

According to the IPCC, the 2023 MAM season is likely to be between a classification of 2 (“stressed”) to 3 (“crisis”) in most parts of the project area.

Bad Year Percentile Rank*
Zone 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Afder 0.85 0.77 0.69 0.38 0.15 0.08 0.00 0.62 0.54 0.23 0.31 0.46 1.00 0.92
Bale 0.85 1.00 0.69 0.54 0.00 0.08 0.62 0.23 0.77 0.15 0.38 0.46 0.92 0.31
Borena 0.69 0.77 0.85 0.15 0.00 0.46 0.08 0.31 0.54 0.38 0.23 0.62 0.92 1.00
Daawa 0.85 0.77 0.69 0.31 0.08 0.15 0.00 0.46 0.54 0.38 0.23 0.62 0.92 1.00
Doolo 0.92 0.77 0.46 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.08 0.69 0.00 0.62 0.15 0.54 1.00 0.85
East Bale 0.38 0.85 0.69 0.23 0.00 0.08 0.62 0.46 0.54 0.15 0.31 0.77 0.92 1.00
Erer 0.46 1.00 0.62 0.23 0.15 0.08 0.00 0.31 0.69 0.54 0.38 0.85 0.92 0.77
Fafan 0.62 0.77 0.92 0.46 0.15 0.23 0.00 0.85 0.69 1.00 0.54 0.38 0.31 0.08
Guji 0.54 0.62 0.92 0.23 0.00 0.15 0.08 0.46 0.69 0.38 0.31 0.77 0.85 1.00
Jarar 1.00 0.77 0.85 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.46 0.38 0.92 0.31 0.54 0.62 0.69
Korahe 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.31 0.15 0.15 0.08 0.69 0.00 0.46 0.38 0.54 1.00 0.62
Liban 0.54 0.77 0.85 0.38 0.08 0.15 0.00 0.46 0.62 0.23 0.31 0.69 0.92 1.00
Nogob 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.31 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.54 0.46 0.38 0.23 0.62 0.69 1.00
Shabelle 0.77 0.85 0.69 0.46 0.08 0.15 0.00 0.62 0.38 0.23 0.31 0.54 1.00 0.92
Siti 0.46 0.62 0.85 0.77 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.92 0.15 0.38 0.23 0.54 0.69 0.31
West Guji 0.46 0.62 0.77 0.31 0.15 0.00 0.08 0.23 0.54 0.92 0.85 0.38 1.00 0.69
* Worse years correspond to higher percentiles

This table presents the same IPC information as a historical ranking for that area, where 1 is the worst year on record and 0 is the best. We can see that across the project area, MAM 2023 is projected to be above the historical average in terms of food insecurity in some zones, and below the historical average in others. This range may reflect differences in social vulnerability across the project area and / or differences in the weather foreecast for the rest of the season. High food insecurity scores may also reflect flooding in some areas (see following section).

WFP VAM

WFP’s latest Seasonal Monitoring report for East Africa can be found here:

WFP VAM Seasonal Monitor

The VAM report raises the following alerts about the project area:

“The heavy rains resulted in flash floods that impacted people, properties, transportation among other sectors. According to the WFP ADAM system, over 500,000 hectares were flooded/inundated in parts of Somali, Sindama, Oromia, Afar, Amhara and Tigray regions. Nearly 230,000 people are affected (OCHA).”


USGS Rainfall Onset

The USGS FEWSNet SOS system monitors several key variables related to crop performance using satellites and models. The above chart shows the timing of the 2023 MAM seasonal start compared to its long-term average.

We see that the season started early across the project area.

5. Participant Feedback