Ethiopia FBF 2022 OND Seasonal Monitoring Report
Date: 14 December, 2022
1. Overview
This report presents monitoring of the ongoing seasonal conditions for the Ethiopia FBF program during the 2022 OND season. The object of this document is to summarise the season’s weather patterns, compare them against the forecast used to plan aniticpatory action, and present information on the humanitarian conditions.
This document will be updated as the season progresses. The last update was on 14 December, 2022.
The forecast SOPs used for planning anticipatory action for this project, as well as the current season’s forecast, can be found here:
https://fist.iri.columbia.edu/publications/docs/eth_somali_fbf_monitor_2022/
2. Introduction
So far, the progression of rainfall and vegetation cover over the season appears to be slightly below average, although not as historically bad as the forecast would suggest. However, full rainfall data for the season is not available yet, so our knowledge of conditions may change. Also, humanitarian reports suggest that the poor conditions of the previous two seasons (MAM 2022 and OND 2021) are contributing to a heightened risk of food insecurity in the southern pastoral areas, leading to heightened alert about the current season’s performance.
Sources of Information
This report draws on satellite measurements of rainfall (CHIRPS) and vegetation condition (MODIS NDVI) as well as humanitarian reports on food security conditions.
Regions Assessed
This report summarises conditions over Somali region as well as the southern part of Oromia region; this catchment area covers the following administrative zones:
3. Satellite Rainfall and Vegetation
CHIRPS Rainfall
This map tool presents CHIRPS rainfall data for the current season. Hover over the “Layers” tab to view a rainfall anomaly map for any 10-day period of the season. Click on a zone to view its rainfall progress over the season in more detail. This tool will automatically update as data becomes available.
So far, rainfall has been slightly below average over the project area. There is some variation between the northern and southern parts of the project area, with the northern part presenting a late start to the season, but showing slightly better rainfall conditions than the south as the season progresses. However, it is too early in the season to know how things will conclude.
MODIS NDVI
This map tool presents MODIS NDVI vegetation data for the current season. Hover over the “Layers” tab to view an NDVI anomaly map for any 16-day period of the season. Click on a zone to view its NDVI progress over the season in more detail. This tool will automatically update as data becomes available.
So far, MODIS NDVI has been average to slightly above average over the project area overall. However, some areas in the south are presenting below-average onditions as the season progresses.
4. Expert Reports
FEWSNET
The full text of the most recent FEWS key message is available via the link below:
FEWS September 2022 Key Message
The FEWSnet report raises the following alerts about the project area:
“In southern and southeastern areas, the ongoing historic drought continues to lead to widespread livestock deaths, displacement, and limited access to food and income. As of late September – the peak of the local dry season – over 4.5 million livestock had died in these areas, according to regional governments, with millions more in extremely poor condition. As livestock body conditions deteriorate, milk availability is dwindling, and livestock are increasingly unsellable. In search of pasture and water, pastoralists are atypically moving their livestock to the highlands of Oromia Region and Siti and Fafan zones of the Somali Region. In addition to minimal income from livestock and milk sales, pastoralists are earning reduced income from firewood and charcoal sales and petty trading amid increased competition and falling demand.”
This chart presents the average Oct-Nov IPC score over each zone in the project area, with 1 being minimal food insecurity and 5 being famine. Note that the 2022 score is a project based on data from September and some trend assumptions.
According to the IPC 2022 OND season is projected to be one of the worst on record, due in large part to the poor conditions of the previous two seasons (MAM 2022 and OND 2021) as well as the forecasted low OND 2022 rainfall.
| Zone | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Afder | 0.92 | 0.31 | 0.85 | 0.38 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.08 | 0.54 | 0.15 | 0.77 | 0.62 | 0.69 | 1.00 |
| Bale | 0.92 | 0.46 | 0.77 | 0.31 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.69 | 0.62 | 0.08 | 0.23 | 0.85 | 0.38 | 0.15 | 1.00 |
| Borena | 0.85 | 0.46 | 0.92 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.38 | 0.62 | 0.69 | 0.08 | 0.77 | 1.00 |
| Daawa | 0.85 | 0.00 | 0.92 | 0.38 | 0.23 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.54 | 0.69 | 0.62 | 0.69 | 1.00 |
| Doolo | 1.00 | 0.38 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.92 | 0.62 | 0.46 | 0.54 | 0.69 | 0.85 |
| East Bale | 0.85 | 0.54 | 0.92 | 0.08 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.38 | 0.15 | 0.23 | 0.69 | 0.62 | 0.77 | 1.00 |
| Erer | 1.00 | 0.46 | 0.92 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.08 | 0.38 | 0.62 | 0.69 | 0.54 | 0.69 | 0.85 |
| Fafan | 1.00 | 0.31 | 0.77 | 0.54 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.23 | 0.85 | 0.69 | 0.62 | 0.08 | 0.38 | 0.92 |
| Guji | 0.77 | 0.08 | 0.92 | 0.31 | 0.46 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.62 | 0.54 | 0.69 | 0.38 | 0.85 | 1.00 |
| Jarar | 1.00 | 0.38 | 0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.92 | 0.77 | 0.62 | 0.46 | 0.54 | 0.69 |
| Korahe | 0.92 | 0.00 | 0.85 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.92 | 0.46 | 0.69 | 0.54 | 0.62 | 0.77 |
| Liban | 0.92 | 0.23 | 0.85 | 0.38 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0.46 | 0.31 | 0.69 | 0.62 | 0.77 | 1.00 |
| Nogob | 1.00 | 0.38 | 0.92 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.85 | 0.46 | 0.62 | 0.54 | 0.62 | 0.77 |
| Shabelle | 1.00 | 0.31 | 0.92 | 0.23 | 0.46 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.77 | 0.38 | 0.69 | 0.54 | 0.62 | 0.85 |
| Siti | 0.85 | 0.15 | 0.38 | 0.69 | 0.54 | 0.31 | 1.00 | 0.77 | 0.08 | 0.23 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 0.92 |
| West Guji | 0.92 | 0.54 | 0.62 | 0.23 | 0.31 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.46 | 0.69 | 0.77 | 0.38 | 0.85 | 1.00 |
| * Worse years correspond to higher percentiles |
This table presents the same IPC information as a historical ranking for that area, where 1 is the worst year on record and 0 is the best. We can see that across the project area, OND 2022 is projected to be among the worst on record in terms of food insecurity.
WFP VAM
WFP’s latest Seasonal Monitoring report for East Africa can be found here:
The VAM report raises the following alerts about the project area:
“in southern and southeastern pastoral areas, drought continues to ravage following the 4th failed season during the Feb-May Belg period. Pastures and water are largely unavailable and livestock body conditions and production are poor and continue to deteriorate, affecting consumption, household income generation and increasing malnutrition. Many households have lost their livestock since the drought started - over 3.8 million livestock deaths (FSNWG) - and are in destitute condition.”
USGS Rainfall Onset
The USGS FEWSNet SOS system monitors several key variables related to crop performance using satellites and models. The above chart shows the timing of the 2022 OND seasonal start compared to its long-term average.
We see that there is a slightly late start to the season in some of the northern parts of the project area, but otherwise average conditions so far.