Current Status

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Current Status - Map

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Current Status - Table

Overview

This page shows the AA trigger activation status for seven districts of interest in the Grand Sud region in Madagascar in the 2024 Oct-Nov-Dec season, based on the forecast issued in September.

For more detailed information, please visit the following:

  • Preparation/Activation Protocol and Timeline: please go to the “AA Protocol” tab at the top of this dashboard or click here
  • DGM’s Flexible Maproom for reference: use this link, it will take out of this dashboard.

District Level Activation for September

1. Severe Scenario

  • Reached the trigger threshold: No Districts in this category.

  • Flexible Trigger Condition (close to threshold): No Districts in this category.

  • Did not reach or get close to the trigger threshold: Ambovombe-Androy, Betioky Atsimo, Ampanihy Ouest, Amboasary-Atsimo, Betroka, Bekily, Tsihombe .

2. Moderate Scenario

  • Reached the trigger threshold: Tsihombe .

  • Flexible Trigger Condition (close to threshold): Ambovombe-Androy, .

  • Did not reach the trigger threshold: Betioky Atsimo, Ampanihy Ouest, Amboasary-Atsimo, Betroka, Bekily,

3. Mild Scenario

  • Reached the trigger threshold: Ambovombe-Androy, Tsihombe. .

  • Flexible Trigger Condition (close to threshold): Betioky Atsimo, Ampanihy Ouest, Bekily, .

  • Did not reach the trigger threshold: Amboasary-Atsimo, Betroka, .

Note: the Flexible Trigger Condition refers to the forecast result not reaching the threshold but being within 2 points from reaching it. If this condition is met, a committee should review and define if a severity scenario is triggered.

Current Forecast Tables

Overview

The tables in this tab show thresholds for different frequencies (%) associated to High, Medium and Mild severity levels, separates the monthly outcomes and shows the flexible forecast criteria results per scenario.

Severe Scenario Table

Moderate Scenario Table

Mild Scenario Table

AA Protocol

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AA Monitoring Timeline

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Current Month Update

As of September, the district-level status for anticipatory action in the 2024 Oct-Nov-Dec season is:

Total districts per scenario

  • Mild severity: 2 districts triggered this scenario. Additionally, 3 districts are close to trigger this scenario (flexible trigger) and need to be reviewed.
  • Moderate severity: 1 districts triggered in this scenario. Additionally, 1 districts are close to trigger this scenario (flexible trigger) and need to be reviewed.
  • High severity: No districts triggered in this scenario. Additionally, no districts are close to trigger this scenario (flexible trigger) and need to be reviewed.

Anticipatory Actions triggered according to the AAP. This information includes the following:

  • Actions on Medium Severity Scenario may activate in 1 district, pending review for flexible trigger.

To see previously issued forecasts for the 2024 Oct-Nov-Dec season, click the “Previous Months” tab. For more details on which actions have been activated according to the Anticipatory Action Plan, click the “AA Activated to Date” tab. Finally, click the “Historical Info” tab for past years’ forecasts.

AA Activation Protocol

This section provides supporting information for the forecast Anticipatory Action planning process in the context of the October-November-December (OND) season in Madagascar as they unfold. It provides:

  1. OND 2023 Monthly Trigger System: There are three trigger frequencies (%) associated to High, Medium and Mild severity levels and considers a flexible forecast criteria for additional expert review. The forecast months for this season are the following:
    • July
    • August
    • September

Summary of the Trigger Decisions

The project decided to have triggers that would activate if the forecast probability for drought is high enough to trigger droughts for three severity level that attached to a frequency of the event. Additionally, a committee of experts and decision makers developed a trigger criteria that that would complement the simple threshold rule and would take into account other aspects of each district.

Main Rules

  • The difference in probability between the forecast and the Threshold, which is between 0 and 2.
  • The number of populations in IPC 3 and above: For the two Districts (Amboasary and Betioky), 40 to 50% of the population are in IPC 3 and above for the Sept-Nov 2024 projection.
  • The intervention Communes are part of the Communes with nutritional emergencies according to the SSN (System of Nutritional Monitoring) Quarter 2 report.
  • The trend of malnutrition in the intervention Communes will be considered by the expert committee.

Severity Scenarios

The project decided to have triggers that would activate if the forecast probability for drought is high enough to place the current season among the worst events based on a frequency level.

  • Severe: those years considered among the worst 15% over the past 4 decades, about one year out of six
  • Moderate: those years considered among the worst 25% over the past 4 decades, about one year out of four
  • Mild: those years considered among the worst 35% over the past 4 decades, about one year out of three

Timeline of Drought impacts

  • Insufficient rain: October to Dececember of 2024
  • Erratic rain: January to March of 2025
  • Crop loss and reduction: March to May of 2025
  • Water Shortage: June 2025
  • Reduction in food availability & increase in prices: March to June 2025

Previous Months

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August Issue

August AA Status - Map

August AA Status - Table

July Issue

July AA Status - Map

July AA Status - Table

AA Activated to Date

Cumulative Action Criteria

This tab shows the Anticipatory Action Activity Packages per severity level with further details on implementation partners and timeline as well as budget requirements. The activities are also separated between preparedness, activation and monitoring and evaluation (M&E). This way, this document provides with the activities planned and triggered in each monthly forecast period.

Please note that the current version is in French because it comes from the WFP template for the country.

Mild Scenario (35%)

  • This scenario has been triggered for some districts during the current or previous forecast months, please review the Current Status tab and the Previous Months tab for the list of districts in this scenario to date.

Moderate Scenario (25%)

  • This scenario has been triggered for some districts during the current or previous forecast months, please review the Current Status tab and the Previous Months tab for the list of districts in this scenario to date.

Severe Scenario (15%)

  • This scenario has been triggered for some districts during the current or previous forecast months, please review the Current Status tab and the Previous Months tab for the list of districts in this scenario to date.

Forecast R-Check

Reality Check (R-Check) Method for Seasonal Forecast

This section helps the memebrs of the expert comittee to review the forecast based on other forecasts available.

Step 1: Internal Check against previous forecasts

When a forecast has preceding forecasts, it is important to review if there seems to be continuity with the previously issued forecast for the season.

Guiding questions
  • What was the previous forecast?
  • If this isn’t the first forecast issued for the relevant period, does the forecast look radically different from the previous forecast issued?

Step 3: Checking the generated forecast against other published forecasts

Compare the result with friends and others, this means comparing the result with rainfall forecasts on similar seasonal or regional length made by other organizations. This includes Meteorological Services, as well as relevant regional and international centers working on the target area.

Guiding question

Looking at the relevant forecasts, are these other forecasts looking similar? (Ie, looking at the NMME, ICPAC, Copernicus)